The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques. Foresight 9 (1). It appears as though the bomb was developed within the framework of a covert project funded by Riyadh. Radical Islamic terror, which rears its head in the West Bank following the war with Hezbollah and regime change in Jordan, compels Israel to re-occupy that territory and dismantle the PA. Ironically, it is with Hamas in Gaza that Israel is able to reach an interim agreement that includes investments in and development of Gaza supported by the Qatar-Turkey axis. Social Capital in the Middle East and North Africa. Arab Barometer. The many points of contention between the great powers hinder their ability to prevent regional conflicts from erupting. 22. In 2028, the reformists lose the elections in Iran as their diplomatic endeavors failed to significantly improve the countrys economic situation. 30. As a result, several of President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisis megaprojects are cancelled and Egypts connection to the other members of the Arab Quartet (Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain) erodes. Israel destroys Iranian nuclear sites in Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow. Examples of trends present today that have not changed much since the NIC report was published more than 15 years ago include the power of the U.S. dollar in the global financial system and the strong global commitment to prevent countries in the Middle East from acquiring nuclear weapons (and none have nuclearized since the publication of the report). In 2027, Egypt conducts a nuclear test in its eastern desert. Mapping the Global Future, p.20: Davos World provides an illustration of how robust economic growth, led by China and India, over the next 15 years could reshape the globalization process giving it a more non-Western face and transforming the political playing field as well. Continued thinking about the future may also allow Israel to identify potential opportunities earlier and to take the necessary steps to seize them, thereby increasing the likelihood that they can be realized. As much as it is an opportunity for both sides, the latent divergences between Israel and the Arab states demand that diplomatic relations should be never taken for granted. According to IMF estimates, the unemployment rate will decrease further to 3.8% in 2023 and 3.7% in 2024. The population has grown from 750,000 at independence to 9.3 million at end 2020, while gross domestic product (GDP) rose from $6.5 billion to $407 billion in 2020 (in 2020 prices and exchange rates). As part of this process, Iran agrees to the full integration of Shia militias into Iraqs armed forces, though Tehran retains considerable indirect levers of influence in the country. f) Societal and Economic Prospects: There are no indications that provide reason to expect a significant improvement in the fundamental social-economic problems of the Middle East that contributed to the political unrest in 2010 and onward;26 there remains a serious relative lack of human capital and the publics faith in government institutions continues to decline.27 Attempts at internal economic, social, and political reforms throughout the region are undercut by entrenched elites and ingrained practices. He goes on to highlight that Israel has done fairly well in recent years with a stable GDP that is growing steadily when measured from 2020 to 2021 which at a sharp increase of 8.1%. Therefore, it is difficult to imagine that the next decade will see significant progress in closing those gaps, and some of the worlds most fragile states that are situated in the Middle East might become further destabilized or involved in inter-state conflicts.28. Continued low energy prices have made the project of shipping gas from Israel to Europe no longer economically viable, and the Israeli government decides to use the gas for internal consumption and to sell it to Gaza. Energy prices recover to pre-COVID levels, but the consensus among experts remains that a major long-term decline in demand is expected over the coming decade due to groundbreaking advances in renewables. In response, Israel is mobilizing all its savings, world Jewry, and the American Congress, but even if President Bush had not asked to delay $ 10 billion in loan guarantees, Israel would still. Accessed February 19, 2021. https://www.oecd.org/site/schoolingfortomorrowknowledgebase/futuresthin. November 2019. https://www.arabbarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/social-capital-public-. How to Make Sense of Weak Signals. MIT Sloan Management Review. Thursday, March 26, 2020, Get foreign policy updates from Brookings, Tiomkin School of Economics at Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya, Aaron Institute for Economic Policy at Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya, In Israel, Benny Gantz decides to join with rival Netanyahu, Brookings experts on the implications of COVID-19 for the Middle East and North Africa, Forum on the future of the Federal Home Loan Bank system: Highlights, The American Rescue Plan, two years later: Analyzing local governments efforts at equitable, transformative change. In addition, greater internal stability could make key actors in the Middle East more assertive toward Israel. It's Introduction The achievements of the Israeli economy since 1948 have been immense. Latest updates put the annual inflation to be at 5.1% in November. 2018 Middle East Institute All Rights Reserved | Accessibility Policy |Built by Social Driver. The global economic crisis drags on long after the COVID-19 health crisis abates, and so energy prices remain depressed and the economies of the Middle East are hard hit, including the wealthy Gulf states. "Between 1991 and 2000, Israel's annual venture-capital outlays, nearly all private, rose nearly 60-fold, from $58 million to $3.3 billion; companies launched by Israeli venture funds rose from 100 to 800; and Israel's information-technology revenues rose from $1.6 billion to $12.5 billion. GDP (PPP): $428.5 billion 3.6% 5-year compound annual growth $45,750 per capita Unemployment: 4.3% Inflation (CPI): 1.5% Public Debt: 68.0% Israel's economic freedom score is 68.9, making its. However, it soon becomes apparent that the new government retains the ancien rgimes hegemonic ambitions. It has also cancelled the contract for Russia to build it nuclear reactors. Fifth, blind spots are inevitable, and experts used to looking outward may run the risk of neglecting developments in their own country, though the latter are certainly no less important. An Israeli Perspective. Washingtons peace efforts are meant to improve its relations (and Israels) with the Arab and Muslim world but do not amount to much due to the evasive maneuvers of both the Israeli and Palestinian governments. What this suggests is the importance of considering in scenarios, or in the analysis of the implications of scenarios, what we might call counter-trends or anti-trends that could emerge instead of, or even alongside, an expected trend. In addition, it is worth considering the possibility that frictions between Moscow and Beijing will result from Russian and Chinese ambitions in the region. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is an independent, non-partisan, non-for-profit, educational organization. Accessed February 19, 2021. https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/forecast. 4. From the American perspective, putting too much emphasis on great power competition could backfire on its other important regional assets. The analysis points to three main policy related factors that potentially explain the existing gap: (1) low levels of public investment and capital stock, in particular in transportation infrastructure and information and communications technology (ICT) infrastructure; (2) shortage of human capital, primarily among individuals who do not obtain academic education; and (3) heavy regulatory and bureaucratic burden on the business sector. Gen. Europe is targeting 40 percent. However, MbSs camp emerges victorious fairly quickly from the power struggle that ensued, and his younger brother, Deputy Defense Minister Khaled bin Salman (KbS), assumes the throne. The speedy global economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis is exploited by the U.S. to increase pressure on China and reduce commitments in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. In addition, it might be worthwhile to broaden the horizons of this research by considering the impact of possible counter-trends to some of the key trends mentioned above, for example the reversal of the shift toward multipolarity and a return to a more unipolar world. Therefore, this article refrains from attempts at prophecy but deals instead with thinking about the future. It opens with an analytical framework for scenario development, supplemented by trends impact and horizon scanning. The second section studies the futures of the past, in terms of what we might learn about the pitfalls of future projection and scenario-building from those outlining possible futures for 2020 from years past. The following article addresses the question of how the Middle East might develop in the coming decade. 2) Socio-economic stability in MENA countries is strongly correlated with (e) demographic pressures, societal and (f) economic prospects, (g) environmental problems, and (h) technological change. A goal, according to Israel Export Institute chairperson Ayelet Nahmias-Verbin, is to connect the economy of the Eastern Mediterranean - Israel, Greece, Egypt, and Turkey - with the economy of the Western Mediterranean - Morocco. Israel and Hamas are engaged in frequent violent and intensive clashes that fail to result in any sort of strategic change that would prevent the next round of fighting. Given the tendency to underestimate continuity, in moments when radical change feels imminent it is worth recalling that much often remains the same over time., Drawing up different scenarios has been described by Brig. Annual economic growth in Israel of 3.5% over the past decade has largely been the result of an increase in employment rates, while the growth rate in productivity has been very low. Oil from the UAE (the national oil company there is named Adnoc) would be a great economic and strategic opportunity for Israel. Itai Brun17 as helpful for thinking about possible futures, facilitating decisionmakers consideration of different ideas about policy, the exercise of power, and military buildup, and useful for governments seeking to prepare themselves for the future.18. 3. U.S. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Economic Forecast Summary (November 2022), Read the survey and access previous releases, Accessed February 18, 2021. https://fragilestatesindex.org. The relative prosperity in the region due to continued high oil prices and remittances from the Gulf leads Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE to invest in more advanced and intrusive surveillance technology. But as Europe has discovered, renewables . Yohanan Plesner, President of the Israel Democracy Institute, opened the first session on establishing national, long-term strategies: "Rather than initiatives that curb the power of gatekeepers, legal advisors, and the Supreme Court, we must implement effective structural changes that tackle the . Oil sales for the UAEthe UAE can obtain a new oil customer. By 2025, Dahlan brings U.S. and Emirati pressure to bear on Israel to promote a peace agreement. Although 60 percent of adult Israelis have performed military service, the rate rises to 90 percent in the high-tech sector. Total exports of natural gas from Israel in 2021 increased by 68% compared to 2020. Rafael Ramirez, Malobi Mukherjee, et al. Turkeys dam-building program could generate fresh conflict in the Middle East. ASPI. Within the context of this arrangement, a peace agreement is signed on the division of Cyprus, as well as the territorial waters in the eastern Mediterranean (Greece holds onto its islands, while Turkey significantly expands its exclusive economic zone). Shira Efron. For international customers: The center is staffed and provides answers on Sundays through Thursdays between 7AM and 14PM Israel time Toll Free number 1-800-448-9291 Telephone +972-3-761-9056 Fax . 2023 The Times of Israel , All Rights Reserved. Andrew Curry and Wendy Schultz. For example, the NICs 2004 report notes that one uncertainty for the future is the Extent to which [Internet] connectivity challenges governments. It is now clear that despite the short period in which social media exclusively enabled the public to organize against regimes, the connectedness and smartness of daily life from iPhones to cashless payment to apps has since evolved into a force multiplier that on balance favors totalitarian governments. Jul 7, 2020. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/e. Then, on the basis of the first two sections, four scenarios elaborate some distinctly different pathways that the Middle East might take to 2030. 23. Any benefits yielded from the fall of the regime could prove to be ephemeral without considerable engagement by the West., The variables of U.S. involvement in the Middle East and the regions economic situation provided the basic outline for mapping out scenarios, though developments in all four cases were non-linear rather than the straightforward and uneventful continuation of existing trends. Lt. Col. #israel #economyofisrael #geopolitics What is the economic future of Israel? (ret.) Beyond the distinct methods, it is also worth keeping in mind that different vantage points will produce different scenarios. There is a significant rise in demand from these Arab states for joint ventures with Israel on technology related to desalination and agriculture and this helps them to cope with climate change more successfully than many other states in the region that refuse cooperation with Israel. March 7, 2023 29:06 Ron. Also found in similar projects such as: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/ME2020.pdf. With that in mind, the authors sought to develop four scenarios of possible futures of the Middle East in 2030 from the Israeli point of view and based on the 2x2 matrix methodology. In 2030, Iran declares that the treachery of the West and the relentless pressure on the regime have left Tehran with no choice but to develop nuclear weapons and it carries out a successful underground test in the countrys eastern desert region. Changes in the dynamics of great power competition in the Middle East might bring about significant changes in the structure of regional camps, which will not necessarily prove helpful for advancing Israels core national security interests. This paper presents a macroeconomic analysis of the sources of the productivity gap in terms of output per-hour of work between Israel and a group of seven comparable OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) economies. There's no way to have sustainable growth as an ecosystem unless you widen the base of the pyramid. In fact, experts predict that the Israeli economy will grow by over 5% in 2022. 31. The Rules-Based Multilateral Order: A Rethink Is Needed. The Institute of International and European Affairs. Evans, Michael K. "An Econometric Model of the Israeli Economy, 1952 -1965." b) Regional Competition: Middle Eastern powers are and will continue to be engaged in intense competition for influence in third countries, including Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, Libya, and other African countries. However, the U.S. avoids a major break in ties due to their strategic importance. Israels involvement in the intra-Palestinian struggle arouses negative sentiments toward Israel in the Arab world in general, and in Saudi Arabia in particular, where the political and religious establishments were already at odds regarding modernization. Bringing. The opinions, facts and any media content in them are presented solely by the authors, and neither The Times of Israel nor its partners assume any responsibility for them. It grew faster than the Eurozone average, as well as the US, Canada, and Australia. He is currently a consultant to several ministries. As a neutral scenario could not be focused, readable, and useful if it lists every development in a given country or region even over the course of a single day, the focus and priorities of the scenario must be limited in scope and defined by the perspective from which it is written. American forces withdraw from Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan, and their presence in the Gulf is reduced. Reports show an 8.6% growth in 2021 when Israel was recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic but with inflation at an all time high, it is expected to hit 5.1% by the end of 2022. Extreme drought in Iran leads to a wave of protests that forces the regime to take especially harsh measures to crush dissent. Economic distress as a result of low oil prices leads to public unrest and violent repression of opposition voices throughout the region, especially in Algeria, Egypt, and Iraq. The petrostates in the Middle East continue to provide financial support for the poorer states in the region. "Democracy is the fuel for the economy's locomotive." That was written on a banner at today's protest against proposed judicial reform in Israel. July 1994. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/1994-07-01/peering-future. Only 7 percent of local energy production last year came from alternative sources, mainly solar, and Israel's future targets are modest compared to Europe's: The government is aiming for just 30 percent of all energy to come from renewables by the end of the decade. 16. Joseph S. Nye Jr. Peering into the Future. Foreign Affairs. With the drawdown of U.S. influence and presence, the Middle East could become an arena for strategic competition between Russia and China.
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